Post by el_duderino on Oct 11, 2008 0:35:52 GMT -5
Ok, let's just get it out of the way first www.albinoblacksheep.com/flash/badgers.
With the important stuff out of the way, there's this little football game going down Saturday night. In what was supposed to be one of the three games that decided the Big Ten title this season, the Penn State-Wisconsin tilt has turned into more of a just a "high hurdle" on the way to Ohio State. Still, this game will be (again) the "first test" for the Lions. (And as I've seen pointed out before, they'll probably find a way to make next weekend's Michigan fiasco yet another "first test".) Wisconsin is still a solid team, and playing them at Camp Randal is no easy task.
Reality of the situation is that Wisconsin is horribly shaken right now. You Jekyll and Hyde the Michigan game at the Big House. You follow that up with a loss to Ohio State's freshman QB's late game drive. At home, no less - a place you've been undefeated under Bret Bielema. In two weeks, you've gone from top 10 to out of the rankings; Big Ten front-runners, to worthwhile-bowl hopefuls. To top it off, your coach is now putting hints/ultimatums to your starting QB and RB to step it up or step aside.
But there is no joy in Madison.
They really sound like a team just struggling to stay aloft. Their entire outlook sounds glum and gloom.
Penn State needs to go for the kill - early and often. It's that simple.
Even with two losses now, Wisconsin is no roll over team, especially at home. They've got an outstanding running game in P.J. Hill and John Clay; an amazing TE in Travis Beckum; and they have a hard-nosed defense that is by far the best we've seen this season.
So how do we win this one? The first big key will to not go into the conservative play calling - trying to run the ball up the gut won't do a damn thing but leave us mouth's agape - a la Michigan last season. Balance will have to be there, and there's no giving up on the run either - if they want to try to put extra men in the box, I'm more than confident in the pass game. Wisconsin can stop the run, but they don't have a serious pass rush, and their secondary is suspect at times. Add to that the return of a healthy Norwood, and throwing the ball will be the key. If Clark can scramble and force the LBs and safeties to spy a bit more, well, even better. But there can be no slow progression to this one - no conservative calls because it's a road game. MRob connected with Deon Butler against this team (home game - yes) in 2005 for a huge TD pass to push that game in the right direction early. Same thing needs to be done here - put up points early, silence the crowd, and force Wisconsin to pass more than run.
On the other side of the ball, the front seven will be in for a treat. Wisconsin is still the old-school Big Ten team of, as the cliche goes, three yards and a cloud of dust offense. They'll run all day if possible - something in the range of 65% of their plays - and their backs and linemen will wear you down quickly. While we "struggled" with Illinois' run game, there's a difference - we know how/where Wisconsin is going to run the ball. It'll likely be ugly at times, but this defense continues to be of the bend-but-don't-break variety. And in a game like this, that may be all we need. As for their passing game, it really is shaky at best. Evridge is on a short leash this week - throwing more INTs than TDs in the past 2 games (3-2 respectively). And their TE is really their biggest receiving weapon, so the match-ups on the outside should be in our favor.
In order to win this game, the offense needs to (be allowed to) show that they really can score at will. Our defense is well-suited to contain this style of offense decently. Take the wind out of the sails early, and Wisconsin will be hard-pressed to find the energy/emotion to take this one back.
Penn State opens it up early, forcing the Wisconsin to throw more than they would like. A couple of INTs make the difference in this one: Penn State takes it, 31-17
With the important stuff out of the way, there's this little football game going down Saturday night. In what was supposed to be one of the three games that decided the Big Ten title this season, the Penn State-Wisconsin tilt has turned into more of a just a "high hurdle" on the way to Ohio State. Still, this game will be (again) the "first test" for the Lions. (And as I've seen pointed out before, they'll probably find a way to make next weekend's Michigan fiasco yet another "first test".) Wisconsin is still a solid team, and playing them at Camp Randal is no easy task.
Reality of the situation is that Wisconsin is horribly shaken right now. You Jekyll and Hyde the Michigan game at the Big House. You follow that up with a loss to Ohio State's freshman QB's late game drive. At home, no less - a place you've been undefeated under Bret Bielema. In two weeks, you've gone from top 10 to out of the rankings; Big Ten front-runners, to worthwhile-bowl hopefuls. To top it off, your coach is now putting hints/ultimatums to your starting QB and RB to step it up or step aside.
But there is no joy in Madison.
They really sound like a team just struggling to stay aloft. Their entire outlook sounds glum and gloom.
Penn State needs to go for the kill - early and often. It's that simple.
Even with two losses now, Wisconsin is no roll over team, especially at home. They've got an outstanding running game in P.J. Hill and John Clay; an amazing TE in Travis Beckum; and they have a hard-nosed defense that is by far the best we've seen this season.
So how do we win this one? The first big key will to not go into the conservative play calling - trying to run the ball up the gut won't do a damn thing but leave us mouth's agape - a la Michigan last season. Balance will have to be there, and there's no giving up on the run either - if they want to try to put extra men in the box, I'm more than confident in the pass game. Wisconsin can stop the run, but they don't have a serious pass rush, and their secondary is suspect at times. Add to that the return of a healthy Norwood, and throwing the ball will be the key. If Clark can scramble and force the LBs and safeties to spy a bit more, well, even better. But there can be no slow progression to this one - no conservative calls because it's a road game. MRob connected with Deon Butler against this team (home game - yes) in 2005 for a huge TD pass to push that game in the right direction early. Same thing needs to be done here - put up points early, silence the crowd, and force Wisconsin to pass more than run.
On the other side of the ball, the front seven will be in for a treat. Wisconsin is still the old-school Big Ten team of, as the cliche goes, three yards and a cloud of dust offense. They'll run all day if possible - something in the range of 65% of their plays - and their backs and linemen will wear you down quickly. While we "struggled" with Illinois' run game, there's a difference - we know how/where Wisconsin is going to run the ball. It'll likely be ugly at times, but this defense continues to be of the bend-but-don't-break variety. And in a game like this, that may be all we need. As for their passing game, it really is shaky at best. Evridge is on a short leash this week - throwing more INTs than TDs in the past 2 games (3-2 respectively). And their TE is really their biggest receiving weapon, so the match-ups on the outside should be in our favor.
In order to win this game, the offense needs to (be allowed to) show that they really can score at will. Our defense is well-suited to contain this style of offense decently. Take the wind out of the sails early, and Wisconsin will be hard-pressed to find the energy/emotion to take this one back.
Penn State opens it up early, forcing the Wisconsin to throw more than they would like. A couple of INTs make the difference in this one: Penn State takes it, 31-17