So what are the chances?

[mooseontheloose]

More and more I have been hearing a buzz about a Flyers/Pens Winter Classic at Beaver Stadium. Apparently the Gov has also approached Bettman about allowing State College to host a game.
Other cities such as Boston and DC have also expressed interest in hosting the Winter Classic.

According to an article on NHL.com, the NHL seems to be favoring a system that would have cities bid on hosting the event two years in advance. The two year advance would be in place to allow the cities time to market the game.

That being said, what are the possibilities of a Flyers/Pens Beaver Stadium showdown on 1/1/10 or maybe 1/1/11?

[phillyfiend]

I heard joe pa wont allow it

[el_duderino]

Chances in the coming couple of years? Not likely - there a number of other cities with an NHL presence that would likely jump State College. Boston, Detroit, Minneapolis, possibly Columbus, and your pick of Canadian cities would likely slip ahead of State College. (Truth be told, I'd love to see a game in Hartford, but I digress.) The ideas of Pasadena and Vegas need to be scrapped.

However, it continues to be one of the more talked about venues/match-ups in terms of the Winter Classic. And I think all the pieces are there - large facility, fans from both teams are able to make the trip. It will happen within the next decade, but I believe we're down on the list of sites at this point.


I heard the same about JoePa nixing the idea, but I remain unconvinced. They were going to go on with that Kickoff Concert thing - the one that was "put on hold" because the NCAA wouldn't allow players to be used as promotional figures - and I struggle to believe the "damage" would be so much greater between setting up an ice rink and setting up a full stage.

[Dr Dan Stantz]

Its going to happen.

I would bet money on the next 3, probably the next 2. I'm hearing that its either next year or the following.

Its simply the rivalry, and the fact that it would be the highest attendance at a hockey game ever.

The NHL presence argument for other cities is there... but Columbus? Come on Grady... no way does Columbus get a game before State College (if its the Flyers-Pens, as proposed). Columbus doesn't have enough hockey fans, plain and simple. They shouldn't even have a team to begin with, let alone an outdoor game.

[el_duderino]

They have a team in city, and a solid NCAA DI presence. I didn't say it was a definite, but trust me when I say I wouldn't be surprised if it happened that way.

Throw Denver and St. Louis onto my list of "locations that might jump State College." Again, it's not that they are better locations, but they have the NHL/big city presence to jump a "city" that would have to get 95% of the crowd to drive 3 hours for the game. Not saying they won't, but you have to look at this from the NHL/publicity standpoint.

[mooseontheloose]

See, I think Grady and Liberg both make excellent points here. Ultimately I think this situation has to be viewed in Liberg's perspective.

Yeah, many people would have to travel to the game, but look at the match up, fan base, facility, location.

Flyers/Pens- Absolutely a great match up. Big rivalry.

Fan Base- No question, both teams have a large fan base.

Facility- Would be the biggest crowd ever at an NHL game.

Location. You have fans of both teams in and around the city. Plus its not as if you asking people to make a plane trip to get here. It will be on a holiday. People WILL make the trip.

I don't think the fact that State College isn't an NHL city will matter. It situated between to major NHL cities. I'm gonna agree with Liberg and say this game is happening in the next few years.

[el_duderino]

You guys need to stop thinking about this from a fan's perspective, and start seeing from the anti-fan - Gary Bettman. Because he's the one making the calls on these decisions.

Match-up - Yes, it's great. It's not the only one that's going to sell. And we still have to remember that the Pens have already been featured in a Winter Classic - other teams will yell for their shot before someone gets a second helping.

Fan base - no large/measurable fan base in the city itself. Yes, both teams are nearby and have large fan bases, but it's still asking people to make a 3hr trip for the game (also noting that, should Penn State be playing in the Rose Bowl or other Jan 1 bowl game, that's a sizable portion of possible fans lost). Compare this to Boston, Denver, Minneapolis, [insert Canadian city here] - all of which have a set base of fans who regularly attend games and would be willing to fill a venue for this.

Facility - Yes, largest ever. But it's the same reason there was talk of fitting it in the Coliseum in LA. (That would mean they would have to shift the date of the Classic, because Lord knows they're not bumping the Rose Bowl from their New Year's Day setup.) And you mock me, but throwing a Blue Jackets game in the 'Shoe makes a lot more sense, logistically speaking, than at Beaver Stadium. And those two stadiums aren't massively different in size.

Location - the game is on New Year's Day. The vast majority of the population is out of town on Winter Break - place is a ghost town. While I'm sure they won't be against it, the University will have to play a large role in what changes must occur during this time - allowing students back in for a few days (means keeping maintenance and security crews up). Ensuring the fields are "usable" for parking (or getting CATA to run extra shuttles specifically for the game). These aren't obstacles that can't be overcome, but its a longer list of changes needed for a city that already is used to this kind of movement every day.

There are just enough knocks against the idea to keep it from being to early of a front-runner. I foresee there will be at least one more major NHL city (too many respected cities to be overlooked), one Canadian city (because "it's been awhile"), and one warmer climate city (because they want to show off their nifty climate control system for the ice) before State College gets on the list. I'm not saying it will never happen, but we're not at the top of the list to be picked at this point.

Keep an eye on Boston (they've been taking the "hot" team as of late with Pens/Sabres and Wings/B'hawks, and Boston is leading that charge right now), Vancouver (they are hosting this thing called the Winter Olympics in 2010 - might be an easy slide), and sadly Las Vegas as possible choices for the coming Winter Classics. (And New York - because those fuckers will try to buy anything.)

[Dr Dan Stantz]

You forget that you mention Bettman is the anti-fan... yet he also loves to slobber all over the Pen's collective knob. He won't care that they've already been in a Winter Classic.

You do make some valid points, but again with Columbus... you're talking about a team that, last year (and so far this year), averaged 14,000 per game. That's 82% of their building. Yet you make the point that too many people would have to travel for the game here? Its a valid point... the travel... but Columbus would have just as much, if not more, of a problem with the travel problem. Both the Pens and Flyers sell out every game. Drawing from that type of fan base certainly helps, as opposed to fans who couldn't care less about their shitty team. And if we're going by your "can't have the same team in it" rule (which I do somewhat agree with), then you can't have Columbus play Detroit in order to draw from a close by fan base.

[el_duderino]

I'll drop the Columbus point - you mentioned the biggest dagger that is the lack of a worthwhile match-up. As long as Blue Jackets continue to under-perform, they won't be in it unless they're invited somewhere. Still want to make a point however:

Yet you make the point that too many people would have to travel for the game here? Its a valid point... the travel... but Columbus would have just as much, if not more, of a problem with the travel problem.

Problem in logic - Columbus, OH is a city of 750,000+ in population; State College is ~50,000. The people are there already to fill the stadium (especially if they hold it at the 'Shoe). Again, I'm not saying they would get it, but they have more in place than State College currently does. It's all about risk in logistics, and holding it in major cities for now is the safer play (i.e. less chance of a logistics fiasco).

Again, this isn't to say State College isn't on the list and will never get it. I'm just looking at 4-6 years out, however. There are just too many cities that have more in place and as good as (if not better) argument for holding the Classic. I'd love to get it sooner, but I think we have to temper our expectations of what we're up against.

(And let's not give Bettman too much credit - I'm not sure he even knows where Pittsburgh is. He just likes whatever is pretty and shiny. Why else do you think he has this love affair of a game/team in Vegas?)